Hand Result + Commentary

Date: Tue, Jun 8, 2010

Hey everyone, I didn't list the results for the hand for a while because I was curious if I would hear any more feedback and didn't want to bias the responses.

microstakes bankroll builder, thanks for your comment; I really enjoy the hand analysis over on your blog.

Anyway, let me preface my response by saying that the handling of AK is one of the biggest issues for developing NL players and can significantly affect their results. I am by no means perfect, but in cash games I normally play carefully and don't end up stacking off unimproved to regulars or anything like that. This particular situation in the SnG, though, did have me a bit confused. Also keep in mind that I'm a limit player first and foremost.

On to the hand. My preflop call was a tough decision, but I think there's a little more to it than just "always a monster." You'll notice I also said most of these unknowns are very unpredictable and I thought his range could include JJ and even AK or maybe AQ.

Now I may be wrong, but I was genuinely unsure as to what to assume as a default range here. Other commenters noted suspicious bet amounts and a likely wider range than AA and KK.

Either way, the pot is 650 and I need to call 325 so I'm getting 2:1 odds.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.858% 30.48% 00.38% 6263357 77250.00 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 69.142% 68.77% 00.38% 14129791 77250.00 { QQ+ }

If he has just AA, KK or QQ, then yeah, I have 30% equity. Not in good shape.

At game speed, I thought that including AQ and JJ in his range would make it an almost even money proposition. My mental calculations were off, as it's only 42% equity now that I've run some Stoves.

But if we widen the range even more to include TT, then:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.175% 38.86% 10.32% 29939770 7951130.50 { AcKh }
Hand 1: 50.825% 40.51% 10.32% 31211649 7951130.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Just about a flip. I'm not sure if this is reasonable to make it this wide, though. I guess it's just probably better to fold unless I have seen villain do something crazy. At this point, he pissed away a decent amount of chips and didn't show down, but I only have 4 hands with him.

The one clear thing about this hand is that the flop decision is negligible; however, I never meant that to be the focus of the analysis. I'll try to come up with hands with more post flop decisions in the future.

Anyway, thanks everyone for the discussion. Results are given as a comment.

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Comment Response

Date: Tue, Jun 1, 2010

Thanks for the comments. I have played the vast majority of my career hands at fixed limit, so although I definitely have a good NL foundation, this background sometimes affects my judgment.

This was the first orbit and assuming a $1500 starting chip stack I notice going into this hand villain had lost $195 of those chips. How? Why? Under what circumstances did he find himself down nearly $200 so quickly?

I have to admit that at the time I didn't take notice of the hand he was involved in. After checking it in my database, he open limped in MP and check/called turn and river on a fairly dry board. He ended up losing to a set and mucked his hand. So not too much info, but the open limp suggests he isn't very good and calling down passively so early is another Nice catch, though, that's a really good point that I should be paying more attention to.

I also agree that his bet sizing is a little off. It could be a tip off that his range is wider, or he might just be a bad player who doesn't know any better.

If you can't stack off here, don't call pre. You aren't going to flop AKx often enough to turn a profit!!

This is exactly right.

I was pretty torn on my initial call but I do have so many chips in the pot and once I flop top pair I have to call it. He is doing this with so much of his preflop range, which definitely includes hands I beat.

Thanks for helping me think things through. I think I got a little tilted by some of the other beats I was taking early on in SnGs and I was just trying to make sure it's not affecting me too much.

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Micro SnGs - How to Read a Limp Reraise?

Date: Sun, May 30, 2010

In reviewing the hands from my first 20 micro SnGs, it's pretty clear to me that I'm not playing tight enough in the first few orbits. I've busted out 9th and 8th place a few times on situations that are too marginal to defend, even though I did have the best of it.

While a few of them are very clear mistakes, a few others have me thinking a bit. I'm still not exactly sure of the default play against bad opponents in some situations.

Here's a hand that occurred in the first orbit of a SnG. No reads on the villains:

Full Tilt Poker $1 + $0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: t1485 M = 33
UTG+1: t1117 M = 24.82
UTG+2: t1305 M = 29
MP1: t1455 M = 32.33
MP2: t1695 M = 37.67
CO: t1665 M = 37
Hero (BTN): t1478 M = 32.84
SB: t1800 M = 40
BB: t1500 M = 33.33

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is BTN with A K
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t30, 3 folds, Hero raises to t140, 2 folds, UTG+2 raises to t465, Hero calls t325

I get limp reraised after making a button raise. It's coming from early position, which usually means a monster. I put him on a range of JJ+, and maybe AK and AQ. It's difficult to say because the players at these stakes are terrible and unpredictable. I also think it's possible he's just raising for the hell of it or "not believing" my raise. I've seen a lot of crazy, baffling plays even in just my first 20 games.


But at the same time, it's only about the 4th hand of the tournament. I decide to take a flop. What should I make of the limp-reraise?

Flop: (t975) K 9 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 bets t840 all in


I flop top pair and he open shoves. I've pulled ahead of JJ and QQ, and I think he's probably salty enough to push even with the overcard on board. I'm rather afraid of AA, and the one remaining combo of KK. The backdoor heart draw gives me a little added value. Do I get involved so early in the SnG?

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First SnG Challenge Report - Not Exactly Crushing Yet

Date: Sat, May 29, 2010

I'm off and running on my NL SnG challenge, and this first report would be a lot more sour in nature had I not hit a big of a hot streak in my last few games.

Through my first 20 $1.20 SnGs, I'm down $4.20 net for a ROI of -17.5%.

But if you check the graph below, I only cashed 3 times in my first 15 games, but 4 out of my last 5. Hopefully I'll stay hot!

I know this sample size is tiny, but my challenge is just for 300 games and I'm shooting for a ROI of 15%. There will be luck involved but I think I can do it.

I'm going to review my hand histories in more detail later today, and I'll have a better idea of how many mistakes I'm making. I know plenty about SnG strategy, but since almost all my actual experience is in ring games, changing gears and applying shoving ranges are still things I'm not used to doing on a daily basis. I'm definitely not perfect so far.

I have taken a few coolers, as I've busted out with AA three times and run into several big pairs in bubble situations. But I'm also sure I'm getting involved in too many marginal situations in the early stages. After playing a few, it became clear to me how bad the average table is at these lowest micros; passive players who NEVER loosen up and min-bettors and raisers are all over the place.

Extremely tight play in the first couple rounds and then positionally-aware aggression when I'm closer to the bubble is the way to go. I'm planning to get a bigger sample and then get the 30 day trial of SnG Wizard.

Anyway, I'll be playing more games today and also reviewing yesterday's hands. I'll be posting anything I find interesting.

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Developing Reads Without my HUD

Date: Thu, May 27, 2010

I got through the poker articles I was writing and last weekend was graduation weekend at my college, so it's officially summertime! And that means a lot of poker.

I'll be continuing a SnG challenge where I hope to shoot for a 15% ROI over 300 games. And I'm hoping to move up in NL, give new games a try and take a shot at some bigger MTTs.

One thing I have been thinking about a lot recently is developing reads on my opponents without over-relying on my HUD statistics.

I feel like recently my reads have suffered a bit and I'm thinking I can find everything I need to know just by looking at the stats.

It's not like I don't know what I have to do; this really just boils down to being lazy.

I need to continue to put players on ranges, even when I'm not involved in the hand. (I never play more than 4 tables so this is pretty doable.)

This is a vital skill that improves with every hand you play. I know I shouldn't have other windows open when I'm playing, but recently I seem to be checking email or reading a sports article more often than I used to.

I also need to continue to pay enough attention to develop detailed notes on my opponents. Do they seem to be positionally aware? Do they ever limp-reraise? If so, with what? Do they slowplay their monsters? What do they donk with? Do they seem to tilt if they take a couple of bad beats? I'm having too many sessions where I stop and realize I haven't written a single note.

At the micros, just about every hand with a showdown should produce a note of some quality. Now that school's out for summer, I should have no excuse not to put in the extra effort that will both improve my hand reading ability and increase my potential profits.

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Playing On Hold Due to Poker Writing Commitment

Date: Tue, May 18, 2010

I have embarked on my sit n go challenge; however, I've only played in a few games so far this week because I took on an assignment writing the content for a poker bankroll management website.

I'm doing an article for all the major game variations, and researching and writing about games like Omaha and stud hi/lo has gotten me interested in branching out even further. Look for me to challenge myself with some different games in the coming weeks.

I'll be done with these articles in the next couple days, and then it's off to the tables to grind Sngs.

Anyone else excited for summer? I'm going to put in so many hands at the tables...

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Starting a SnG Challenge

Date: Fri, May 14, 2010

So far, I've tried to dabble in a variety of games. I started playing just limit cash games before starting to work in a lot of No Limit. I've always enjoyed large multi-table tournaments and have plenty of experience with them.

The one game I haven't gotten involved with too much is SnGs, so I'm planning to start to play them at high volume. Thinking about things like blind/stack ratios, changing gears and shorthanded play should really help me develop into a more well-rounded player, especially since I have a strong fixed limit background.

I'm starting with the little guys, $1.10 buy-in, and I'll see how I fare after a decent sample. I'm going for a 15% ROI after my first 300 games. I know the confidence interval for this sample is very low, so there will be a lot of random luck, but I just wanted to give myself a number to shoot for. Wish me luck!

In other news. I'm starting to sell poker articles I have written to different websites. I have been supporting myself with freelance writing for the past year, and poker and casino content is something I'd like to seriously pursue this summer and beyond.

I've also been reading several poker books, so look out for a few book reviews on here in the coming days.

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Thinking About the UIGEA on June 1st

Date: Wed, May 12, 2010

As a US player, I'm naturally curious about the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act, passed in 2006, and what will happen on June 1st of this year. I feel that these issues are misunderstood by a lot of poker players.

The UIGEA doesn't make playing online poker illegal, as some players think, but rather makes it illegal for banks to accept transactions that they think are related to "unlawful internet gambling." The act doesn't clarify what this means, and leaves it up to the banks to make their own judgment. It also mostly concerns deposits, not withdrawls.

June 1 is the final date for compliance with the UIGEA, meaning that banks can be punished for failing to act in accordance. Many have already started to tighten up, so it's not certain whether or not June 1 will see any significant change. I feel like it won't be much of a difference, but many fear that the U.S. market might start to gradually dry up.

On the other hand, if a major bank comes out with a definite stance on the issue, that might be all we need to get the wheels in motion for some actual change and hopefully official unambiguously legal poker in the future.

I'm a little apprehensive as to what will happen, and I hope that the poker climate stays positive.

What do you all think? Any concern?

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Looking Forward to a New Month - Poker Stars Bonus Anyone?

Date: Sat, May 1, 2010

It's been a while since I've put in a high volume of play, but May will mark a new chapter in my poker career.
I've just been messing around with micro NL cash games on Full Tilt while I get ready to move sites and unlock a new bonus.

I've been wanting to give Poker Stars a try for some time now, so I'll be opening an account at the beginning of next week.

I've read through their VIP program and I understand how it can be considered comparable to rakeback. I know there is no rakeback but are there any incentives at all available by signing up through a bonus code? Anyone have one?

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MTT Report: Guess I'm Waiting Until Next Week, No WSOP So Far

Date: Mon, Apr 19, 2010

Today I freed up my schedule expecting to play several MTTs.

I settled in at around 1pm for the $1 Main Event Satellite on Full Tilt Poker, which I had qualified for in a FTP points satellite earlier in the week. They give away 5 Main Event packages and there are usually about 30,000 to 40,000 players.

Probably not my best equity opportunity because it's so extremely top-heavy, but I still find myself excited by having any chance to make it to the big one.

The strategy for this type of tournament is pretty simple. First, try to build a stack in the first few rounds but try to keep the pot small unless you're lucky enough to hold near the nuts. It's not worth going crazy with top pair, especially out of position.

The blinds shoot up very fast, so you're usually down to push or fold after about an hour. Today, I built my stack up to about 7,000 from 1,500, but the blinds were 400/800 with a 100 ante after about an hour. The field had also been whittled down to just 5,000! I definitely thought this would take a lot longer.

I blinded away a little bit and then realized I had to start pushing with anything halfway decent in late position. I ended up getting my money in with A3s and got called by JT. He turned a Q hi straight and I knew I'd have to wait until next Sunday to book my ticket to Vegas. 4,368th place.

Had I doubled up a few times, I could have gotten back to playing real poker. The guys that end up on top in these tourneys have to win a LOT of coin flips and get extremely lucky. But someone has to win!

Then it was time for the $22 200K Double Deuce tournament, which I had also qualified for. Or so I thought. Turned out I had somehow mistakenly unregistered when I had the tournament lobby open and they gave me back my FTP points. Guess I'll have to wait until next Sunday for that, too.

How do you all handle tournaments against enormous fields? Do you even play them?

And is anyone else playing satellites for a shot at the WSOP? Have any of you found a good one on any other site?

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Upset After Internet Disconnect at Crucial Moment in MTT

Date: Thu, Apr 15, 2010

I recently posted about a freak storm knocking out my power and almost ruining my Take 2 bonus. Thankfully, I was still able to get it. Now it's my internet connection that's on the fritz, and the failure couldn't have come at a worse time.

I was spending my Full Tilt Points, and I entered a 6 max NL tournament where the top 6 get paid $75 tournament tokens. Pretty good deal. I played really well; hit a few hands early on and then opened up a bunch when the blinds got larger and kept adding to my stack.

I lost a few hands, though, and was a pretty small stack with 10 players left. When there were 8 remaining on two tables, the software started to lag, and I got a little worried. I checked Firefox, and the page didn't load! Then the fateful "trying to connect" message popped up and I knew I was in trouble. I went straight to my modem and restarted it, rebooted my laptop, yelled a few obscenities. You know, the usual ideas.

It finally started working after about 20 minutes, and I saw that I had finished 7th, one spot out of a $75 token. The other players must have been ecstatic to see a short stack on auto fold one out of the money.

On the bright side, earlier in the day I qualified for the $1 Main Event Qualifier and won a $22 seat 200K Double Deuce tournament. Sunday's going to be a big MTT day for me.

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