Playing a mix

Date: Sun, Jul 6, 2008

Been playing a mix of .5/$1 6-max, NL10 and micro-tourneys. Doing so-so at 6-max, I beat this level fairly easy before the UGIEA but it's giving me the same difficulty $1/$2 did back then, to be expected I guess since the games have gotten slightly tougher since the US crackdown.

Doing decently at NL10, 15BB/100 but only 900 hands so not enough to feel confident about my play yet. Doing decently on my ROI thanks to a 2nd place in a 4x180. I was very happy with my play until the HU, made a few bone head moves there that cost me 1st. Overall my tourney play has been improving; was ITM in today's $100k, made two moves based on reads, both worked as I'd hoped. Wasn't happy with my last hand, a tight player pushed all-in UTG. I was in the BB with ATo and he had me slightly covered. I knew he was tight (13/9) and there was a good chance he had better than ATo, I was leaning towards folding then started thinking about my M and called. Should have listened to my read, he turned over AQ and it held up.

My attitude towards my play is beginning to change, which is a good thing. Don't get as upset with myself when I make a bad move, watching the Stox videos has helped alot there.

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Playing a mix

Date: Sun, Jul 6, 2008

Been playing a mix of .5/$1 6-max, NL10 and micro-tourneys. Doing so-so at 6-max, I beat this level fairly easy before the UGIEA but it's giving me the same difficulty $1/$2 did back then, to be expected I guess since the games have gotten slightly tougher since the US crackdown.

Doing decently at NL10, 15BB/100 but only 900 hands so not enough to feel confident about my play yet. Doing decently on my ROI thanks to a 2nd place in a 4x180. I was very happy with my play until the HU, made a few bone head moves there that cost me 1st. Overall my tourney play has been improving; was ITM in today's $100k, made two moves based on reads, both worked as I'd hoped. Wasn't happy with my last hand, a tight player pushed all-in UTG. I was in the BB with ATo and he had me slightly covered. I knew he was tight (13/9) and there was a good chance he had better than ATo, I was leaning towards folding then started thinking about my M and called. Should have listened to my read, he turned over AQ and it held up.

My attitude towards my play is beginning to change, which is a good thing. Don't get as upset with myself when I make a bad move, watching the Stox videos has helped alot there.

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Playing a mix

Date: Sun, Jul 6, 2008

Been playing a mix of .5/$1 6-max, NL10 and micro-tourneys. Doing so-so at 6-max, I beat this level fairly easy before the UGIEA but it's giving me the same difficulty $1/$2 did back then, to be expected I guess since the games have gotten slightly tougher since the US crackdown.

Doing decently at NL10, 15BB/100 but only 900 hands so not enough to feel confident about my play yet. Doing decently on my ROI thanks to a 2nd place in a 4x180. I was very happy with my play until the HU, made a few bone head moves there that cost me 1st. Overall my tourney play has been improving; was ITM in today's $100k, made two moves based on reads, both worked as I'd hoped. Wasn't happy with my last hand, a tight player pushed all-in UTG. I was in the BB with ATo and he had me slightly covered. I knew he was tight (13/9) and there was a good chance he had better than ATo, I was leaning towards folding then started thinking about my M and called. Should have listened to my read, he turned over AQ and it held up.

My attitude towards my play is beginning to change, which is a good thing. Don't get as upset with myself when I make a bad move, watching the Stox videos has helped alot there.

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Figuring out lines

Date: Mon, May 5, 2008

Been playing .25/.50 6-max again and need to start testing some of my assumptions about the average player.

For example, have noticed an increase in the number of players who will cold call a raise behind and lead the flop, turn and river on low boards. My basic assumption is that the average player will not fire w/air into two players on the flop and turn but I think I've got this wrong. In looking at hands I've folded on the river, villain won 61% without showing his cards. Given that you only hit a pair on the flop 32% of the time and only improve 25% by the river, 61% of hands won without the cards being seen seems pretty high.

Over the next week, if I'm raised and get a cold-caller and a blind call, I'm going to go to the river regardless and see how it plays out. The math on a few scenarios indicates calling down with hands that are likely to be better than their range is +EV.

For example, you raise PF and get two callers, the board is low and one opponent leads the flop, both call. Turn is another rag and the bettor leads again, one fold, you call. You miss the river and bettor leads again, you call.

Opponent will hit a pair on the flop 32.38% of the time, he'll have air 67.62%. If neither of us have improved:

.6762(8.5BB) - .3238(2.5) = +4.94BB

If he checks the turn and then bets the river unimproved, a call is +3.58BB.

If the second opponent will call the turn because he improved, a river call is -0.78 but all you need is an 8% chance he is bluffing the river unimproved to break even.

It's still read dependent but think I need to try the call down approach for at least a week and track what happens. Will the average LAG fire blanks into a PFR on all streets on a raggy board?

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Whoo Hoo!

Date: Sun, Apr 13, 2008

Won another ITH League sat. I don't know why I usually do ok in these; I thought it was because I focus better but today realized it may also be due to the fact I love playing against fellow ITH'ers, it's fun, and so I usually enjoy these games more. Ciaran tells me I'm a luck box; and I do usually get lucky with one or two hands. Sometimes I make the wrong move at the right time and get paid. Today, it was a 53o hand :)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (4 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

UTG (t3320)
Button (t1440)
Hero (t865)
BB (t3375)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3h, 5c.

UTG raises to t150, 1 fold, SB raises to t865, 1 fold, UTG calls t715.

I raised here hoping UTG would fold, we were only 4 handed and table was pretty tight so was hoping he was on more of a steal than real hand. Optimistic on my part, but hey, I've got 53o!

Flop: (t1780) Ad, 2d, 3s (2 players)

Whoo hoo! I have outs :)

Turn: (t1780) 9h (2 players)

River: (t1780) 4d (2 players)

Lol... my outs came in :)

Final Pot: t1780

UTG has 7d 7c (one pair, sevens).
Hero has 3h 5c (straight, five high).
Outcome: Hero wins t1780.

I think that was the only place I really got lucky; the timing was great though. I'd been down to 240t early when blinds were still 10/20. I was in the SB with pocket QQ's. UTG made it 60, B called and I made it 300. UTG re-raised to 760t. I probably should have folded to the re-raise but instead I pushed. UTG turned over KK and they held up, my stack went from 1,550t to 240t. So winning in the end was even sweeter :)

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Winning or Losing?

Date: Sat, Apr 12, 2008

I love this post by Ed Miller. He's so right. Poker is a solitary roller coaster ride and in the end has very little to do with beating others and everything to do with beating yourself; my problem is I tend to beat myself up. In the end, I doubt it matters to anyone but myself how I do; and that does matter to me.

I know I'm my own worst enemy, in poker and in other areas of my life. Can't help but feel that if I can master my thinking at the table it will flow over and help me master my thinking away from the table. I've always kind of learned things by osmosis; the lessons gradually sink in. I've taught myself all kinds of skills over the years and, 'cause I'm occasionally clever, people sometimes think I'm intelligent; and are often surprised to find I never went to college or university; which always surprises me. Little do they know that wandering through my mind is equivalent to wandering through a bog. But every once and awhile I can feel my brain stretch as some new idea sinks in and that, for me, is the greatest high there is. So I will keep plugging away at poker, not because I want to be the best there is but because one day, at the end of my life, I'd like to say 'Yeah, I worked hard at that and think I did pretty damn good'.

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NL .02/.05 6-max

Date: Wed, Apr 9, 2008

Managed to get in a some decent sessions the last few days. I've been focusing more on my preflop, hand reading and watching opponent betting patterns. Had one today I nearly folded on the river. We were 5 handed and I raised 3xBB 1st in from the CO with A A. The Button and SB folded and the BB called. The flop came 9 8 A. The BB checked, I bet the pot and he called. The turn was J. Again, the BB checked, I bet the pot and he called. The river was 7, not a great card for me as it completed two draws. BB bet 1/3 of the pot. He had played the hand like a draw but his bet size didn't seem right. I thought he had something but (a) he in the blind, and (b) he had an AF of 2 on the river. Admittedly, this was over a small hand sample but his bet looked weak to me. He was giving me 4:1 to call so felt there was no way I could fold the set; I called. He did have a hand, 9 9, for a smaller set. Felt good about that one :)

I was playing two tables and there was one guy at both; he was playing 4 tables and a real TAZ: 34/31/5 with Attempted Blind Steal of 64%. He was UTG to my blind on one table and B on the other and he was wailing on my blinds. His fold to blind steal was 0%, he defended them very aggressively. I started to get annoyed and then decided to just wait until I got a hand. My patience paid off, he won some of my blinds but I netted 35BB from him. Sort of drove home the point that I don't have to aggressively defend my blinds in NL; it works differently than limit because you've got more control over the pot size.

I also managed to pick off a number of river bluffs, amazing how many people will suddenly bet out on the river when the board pairs; they usually don't bet enough, maybe 1/4 to 1/3 of the pot although one I picked off was a 1/2 pot bet. I had raised AQ and bet the pot on a fairly dry flop 8 A 5. The turn was another rag and I bet the pot again. The river was a 5. Villain had check/called the F and T and then suddenly bet 1/2 the pot on the river. But I'd noticed in other hands that he would bet bottom pair in HU and multiway situations regardless of the flop texture. In this hand he had checked/called so I figured he probably didn't have the 5 and called. He turned over K 2; he'd been on the flush draw and had then decided to bluff the river.

Didn't make any total donk errors that I could see so feeling a bit better about my game. I even made a few moves against players based on reads and they worked out, for the most part, in particular against the TAZ and against another player who was super loose and aggressive but the aggression was weird, he was 67/0 and he would min bet the flop and turn and people would fold. I kept waiting to see a hand but there were no showdowns; he'd limp, min bet the flop and turn and everyone would fold. So I started raising him and either raising his flop or turn bet and he'd fold. It was a nice setup until a LAG sat in behind us and started cold calling; sandwiching me so I had to tighten up.

Anyway, just gotta keep doing more of the same: focus and think correctly at the table.

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Blog Clean Up

Date: Mon, Mar 31, 2008

Got tired of looking at the narrowness of my blog layout so updated to the Jellyfish template.

Working my way through Ed Miller's Poker Made Simple videos on StoxPoker and one thing that is really hitting home is that I do not think along good lines at the table; I try to focus on way to many things with the net result that I focus on nothing. No surprise, my mafia play made the same thing abundantly clear. Now I have to figure out how to fix it.

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In the hole again

Date: Fri, Mar 28, 2008

Well, after patting myself on the back for getting in a few good sessions went into the tank yesterday, reverting to old habits and gave it all back :(

Had a better session today; don't think I made any PF errors or post flop errors that I could see but ended up down for the session. Raised AQo on the B first in. SB completed, BB folded. Flop was 5 2Q, SB checked, I bet the pot and SB called. Turn was A. SB checked, I bet $1 and he raised to $2. Possible hands were 34, a smaller 2pr, or 4FD. SB was sLPP 31/0/1.25 so figured he had something; I was ahead of the 2pr and flush draws so pushed. He called and turned over K 3. The J hit the river and he won the hand. I was 75:25 on the push so think it was ok. He was also right to call; if he'd only had the flush outs his call would have been a mistake but with the GS he had 13 outs needing 2.5:1 and he was getting 2.9:1.

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Hee Haw

Date: Thu, Mar 27, 2008

I am a donkey :( On Monday I reviewed my first few NL(10) sessions and the results were awful; played like a total donk over 1,468 hands; not only was I losing 0.04/Hand I deserved to lose it, had no card discipline at all. So my goal this week was to set myself some standards and then judge the success or failure of a session based on how well I could keep to them.

I played 204 hands on Tuesday and did ok, 3 PF errors that I could find. Post flop was better, got my money in when I was ahead and built the pot with big hands.

Got in 202 hands yesterday, not so good. 5 PF errors and 2 post flop errors. I was ok until I switched to a new table and had a LAG two to my left. Cold called raises, called flop and turn and then bet out on river. I let myself get too annoyed with these type of players. I know the right strategy to play against them but I let my annoyance with them get in the way. Today, need to watch out for it and make sure I use the strategy and not let emotions kick in.

Stats for the last two days have shown a definite improvement: 16.8/11/2.3 with 28.03BB/100. All because I've brought some focus back to my PF game. Prior to that I was running at 24.5/14.9/2 -0.40BB/100.

Managed to get in 3 40FPP tourneys; these are sats to WSOP qualifiers. About the most I can say of my play is that I managed to get my money in with the best of it. In one, had 73o in the blind and flopped the nut straight on a low board, got it all in on the turn and had call from a set of 5's, the river paired the board. Lost another when short-stacked and AQs ran into AKo. Think the 3rd was KK < Ax.

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Playing with PS

Date: Mon, Mar 24, 2008

Been doing some more playing around with PokerStove and hand equity calculations. Once you think someone is playing Group 1 thru 4 hands (11.5%), no two cards are worse than 3:1 HU if you get it all-in PF.

Which is, I guess, why you hear "any two cards can win" so often.

The numbers do change quite drastically if you think more than one hand will call. For example, if you think you'll get a call from someone playing Group 1 thru 4 and another player who would only call with a premium hand, then 99, which is 1:1 against the first player drops to about 20% (4:1). If the second caller is a blind with a random hand, your equity goes up to about 58% (0.72:1).

What I found interesting in the above chart is that any pair is no worse than 1.5:1 and if opponents are slightly tighter ie playing Groups 1 and 2 or 1 thru 3 then you're never worse than 3:1.

Looking at it from a weak kicker standpoint is also interesting. In many situations, if you're willing to play a K9s or A9o or Q9s you should almost be indifferent to playing K3s or A4o or Q2s since the equity isn't that different once the kicker is below 8 or 9. The only time the kicker will be important is if your opponent holds the same high card. For example, if you hold A4o and your opponent holds A8o. But if your opponents range is wide enough he may just as easily hold a non-Ace hand.

'Course, whether to push an Axo hand or not would largely depend on your position and reads since there are many players who will call regularly with any Ace, especially in micro-limit games. In which case, pushing any pair or suited connectors or even Kxs might be better options since you're more likely to have live cards.

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Damnation

Date: Sun, Mar 23, 2008

There are days I want to kill my children. I was having a nice run of cards and a fairly solid session when my daughter came home and kept yapping at me; I blew it all on one hand because I only had 1/2 an eye on the tables and was sitting with top pair HU. I forgot the betting sequence and should have folded, probably on the turn but instead I kept clicking call and boom, a tight player had KK, surprise. Looking at the hand history I called a raise against him, called a flop raise and two decent sized bets on both the turn and river. Sigh. She's still yapping on at me ... strangle, strangle, strangle ... lol! Session over 5 minutes to late :(

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Time and NL Cash

Date: Sun, Mar 23, 2008

Had no time to do anything this week :( Every time I thought I'd have a few hours to get a tourney in, something came up. I guess it's going to happen fairly regular; hard to block off 4-5hr periods every day, so I decided, since I'm subscribing to StoxPoker, to check out Ed Miller's 'Poker Made Simple' series for NL cash games. I love his writing and teaching style; clear and to the point which my muddled head appreciates :)

Have gotten four sessions in at .02/.05 (10 Max) for 663 hands. Played like a complete donkey in the first two sessions dropping 1 buy-in on one hand when I convinced myself the guy couldn't have what he represented. Played relatively better the next two sessions but still down a 1/2 buy-in because of my idiotic call (couldn't lay down KK on an Ace high, 3 suited board HU).

Grappling with lines to take against aggro's vs passives so have to go back over Ed's videos and quizzes. I also need to work on bluffing strategies; made two bluffs during the 4 sessions and picked the wrong spot/opp for both of them.

Everyone says the micro's can be beaten even if you're brain dead; we'll see.

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0.25 NHLE MTT

Date: Sat, Mar 15, 2008

4,170 runners, 801 get paid
1st break 4,120t 580/1385 Avg stack 4,416
Out in 1,252nd spot

Played awful in this one and in the end, just after 1st break, lost my patience with an aggro on my left who would cc PF and be very aggro post flop. I raised 1st in with A9o from the HJ. He cold called. Flop came 6s 4s Qc. I bet and he raised, which I expected. I pushed. He called, which I didn't expect. My read was partially right, he had A8 but with the spade draw. He didn't hit the flush but an 8 came on the river and I was out.

That A9 was haunting me tonight...lol

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