The Den has moved

Date: Tue, Jan 6, 2009 Internet

Further blogging will continue at
http://web.me.com/soultwister/

Read Full Blog Post

The Den has moved

Date: Tue, Jan 6, 2009 Internet

Further blogging will continue at
http://web.me.com/soultwister

Read Full Blog Post

The Den has moved

Date: Tue, Jan 6, 2009 Internet

Further blogging will continue at
http://web.me.com/soultwister

Read Full Blog Post

Phase 2

Date: Sun, Sep 28, 2008 Internet

I upgraded my PC a few days ago, which actually also was quite funny to do (well, not the assembly, but the buying of the parts I needed). I walked into a computer store, across the place I work at myself, and asked them if they had the Q9300 processor. They answered no, so I thanked them for their time and walked outside. So I went into the next store, where they answered 'yes' to my question, and followed by asking me if that was all I needed. So I answered I also needed an asus mainboard but wanted to see their boxes (and made my pick after seeing them choosing the only one with the P45 chipset), 4GB of ram, an LG or Nec DVD burner, a SATA harddisk of 250gb (have enough external drives lying around) and a 550w power supply from Coolermaster or Antec.

Somewhere along the line they asked me what I was going to use the PC for, I believe it was when I informed them that the memory they were trying to sell me wasn't much better than the memory which was only 1/3rd of it's price (which was the only thing I bought where I even bothered to inform about the price, which also probably surprised them). I still remember the looks on their faces when I answered 'Poker' to their question.

So after finally bothering to put my PC together a few days later and reinstalling everything I decided it would be interesting to start with a complete clean database, and even not import my .dat file from Full Tilt which contains all the notes I have about players.

The reason for doing so was something I realized after my trip to Barcelona. I played a few days online and ran/played pretty bad, losing about 6 buyins or something. Nothing out of the ordinary, but I was getting less and less satisfied with my overall game. Further, my notes on players were cluttered with examples about hands that were way too specific, yet failed to describe the kind of players they were.

My NL2 winnings were something about 3.5ptBB/100 or something longterm, and that is not something to brag at, especially when I consider myself a decent player who invests a lot of time doing his homework, and who does not play too many tables.

I've been doing an extensive review of my old pokertracker database the last few days and came to the conclusion I missed out on quite some important things while playing my normal game, which was something that used to be a large part of my game before: Pure mathematics.

Here are a few examples to describe what I mean:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

2 folds, blinnd raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, 2 folds, blinnd folds

Final Pot: $17

Hero wins $34 ( won +$10 )
blinnd lost -$7.00


Villain in this spot is a solid regular. He plays 23/19 attempt to steal 36% with 28% attempt to steal from cutoff. His fold to 3bet is 61%, but this is obviously weighted based on position, history etc. His continuation bet % is only 61%.

So here, even while it does not look that bad to just call, I do not think I can exploit him that much with his low cbet %, and I may get in a tough spot with an easily dominated hand like KJo.

My old standard was to polarize my range here vs players like these with QQ+, AK and suited one-gappers which exclude a T. That part of my range is still the same vs him, but KJo has some great preflop bonuses in this spot:

If he opens with 28% of his hands, and even with the history between us which makes me believe he will defend somewhat lighter vs my 3bets, I still only expect him to continue with hands like 99-AA, AJ+, KQ and JQs/JTs. That is 8.1% of the total hands which he could be opening with, and it's about 29% of his total CO opening range. Assuming I will get owned badly if called, or won't put a chip in postflop, when seen as a total bluff this needs to succeed 24/34=70,6% of the time while he will generally fold 71% of that range. Even while that seems miniscule +EV, there are still two people sitting behind me who may wake up with aces.

Yet if I add the card removal bonuses for having KJo here, his range shifts. Before he would be continuing with 29% of his total CO range, but if I calculate the odds for him to hold a hand he can continue with when I hold blockers to some of those hands, things shift drastically.

So what seems a likely 28% cutoff opening range? Assume something like this, which is actually 28,5%: 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+

That leads to 13 pocket pairs (78 combinations), A2s+(48 c.), K8s+(20), Q8s+(16), T8s+(8), 98s(4), A7o+(112), K9o+(64), Q9o+(48), J9o+(32).

This is not 100% correct off course, since I do not know his complete range, but it's a close estimate. Further, it's much more likely that hands like 56s are in his CO opening range than K9o when I am sitting behind him, but I'll leave it at this range for now.

So what this tells us is that he opens 430 different combinations, and he can continue with 29% of that range if I had no blockers, which are about 125 combinations. Me holding KJ gives me some blockers on his hand distribution if I look at what hands he'll continue with, which I described as 99-AA, AJ+, KQ and JQs/JTs. Holding KJ reduces the probability of him holding AJ+ with 8 combinations, KQ with 5, JQs/JTs with 2, 99+ with 6.

This sums up that while normally he could continue with 125 of his possible combinations, he can now only continue with 104. Me holding KJ has a significant impact on the chance I get called here, and while it's incorrect to say he will now only continue with 24% of his hands and will fold 76% of the time (since me having two blockers to hands he will continue with also reduces the chance he opened from that spot in the first place) it does have some noticeable impact.

This is an extremely marginal situation, but in this spot, combined with his low cbet % and some lunatics sitting behind me who could do something stupid like squeeze with A7o even without knowing how to spell that word, I figured 3betting was better in that spot than calling.

Hand 2:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:CO Hero BTN Neffer2 BB basouli

UTG	FIVETHREE53	($82.40)
UTG+1	zer_cool	($227.75)
($230.70)
($76.20)
SB	clopper lover	($110.00)
($438.75)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

2 folds, Hero raises to $7, Neffer2 calls $7, 1 fold, basouli raises to $29, Hero calls $22, Neffer2 folds



Villain in this hand played quite sporadically. He ran at 40/31 with a 3bet % of 8.8%, and I already made a note about him in earlier observed hands which made me think he was extremely squeezy-happy. So right here, I again have to fix a little mathematical dilemma.

I probably open about 25 or 30% from the CO on this table, and this player is going to 3bet tons and is definitely going to use most squeezy opportunities. If I fold almost any hand vs him except a widened value based range, he is going to exploit me tremendously preflop. This is why I need to continue with about half the hands I open from this spot to not be exploitable preflop, either by calling or 4betting for value/as bluff. 9Ts in position is definitely playable, so I call.


Flop: ($66, 2 players)
basouli bets $45, Hero calls $45



In a normal raised pot I rarely float with just a gutshot and backdoor flushdraw and prefer a bluffraise (though on this board texture, I prefer a float), but in a 3bet pot the stack sizes become a bit too small to raise here. Further, I cannot represent much if I raise since I would not raise a hand like AJ either. His large cbet makes me quite comfortable about my options later on, so I decide to float here.

Turn: ($156, 2 players)
basouli checks, Hero bets $63, basouli folds



Standard after floating flop. vs tighter players I would take the free card, but the chance of him having a made hand is so small that I prefer to take the pot down on the turn, cheaply.

Final Pot: $156

Hero wins $216 ( won +$79 )
Neffer2 lost -$7.00
basouli lost -$74.00


Hand 3:
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG Big0308 CO Hero BTN blinnd

($541.60)
($401.10)
($197.00)
SB	sorry_its_me	($121.75)
BB	easyway777	($352.45)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO

Big0308 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, blinnd raises to $31, 2 folds, Big0308 folds, Hero raises to $66, blinnd calls $35



A 35/17 fish opened UTG, so I just flatted, since I do not really like raising with AQo in this spot much. It becomes more interesting though when someone who plays 23/19 with a 3bet % of 7.5% decides to squeeze. Yet again this person made some plays earlier which made me think that he pounds on preflop weakness a lot, so I assumed he was quite capable of squeezing here. I do not mind a call, but I figured AQ was ahead of his range, and since I will be playing AA/KK/QQ/AK the same in this preflop situation, I put in a tiny 4bet. Villain obliged by calling.

Flop: ($142, 2 players)
Hero checks, blinnd checks



I hated this flop kinda, since even while I rarely ever cbet in a 4bet pot OOP on dry boards, I do not expect to get much action. I took the same line with the rest of the hand as I would with KK in this spot.

Turn: ($142, 2 players)
Hero bets $69, blinnd folds

Final Pot: $142

Hero wins $208 ( won +$73 )
blinnd lost -$66.00
Big0308 lost -$7.00


Hand 4:

This is a hand I misplayed terribly, but I do not mind my play if I had something like KJ or A9o, since then I would at least have some blockers.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG+1 doktore4 BTN Hero SB Bule Gila

UTG	shxlfxm	($281.80)
($158.55)
CO	2michael8	($173.60)
($207.85)
($691.40)
BB	Boodabor	($219.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN

1 fold, doktore4 calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, Bule Gila raises to $28, 1 fold, doktore4 folds, Hero raises to $52, Bule Gila goes all-in $691.40, Hero folds



Villain in this hand is quite solid, played 21/16 after 1.2k hands, and had been owning me constantly at this table. Him sitting there would be a reason to actually leave the table, but since I want to get ready for 2/4, I do not mind some tough opposition at times.

What was interesting is that the villain in this spot 3bet me, while he generally used to just call my isolation raises in position when a fish was in the pot, even with hands like QQ+.

Because of that, I had to assume that he was probably more likely to be making a total bluff, compared to having an actual hand, since I did expect him to just call with all his playable and premium hands in this spot to keep the fish in, especially in position.

Sadly, I was wrong, and he told me after the hand that I made a good laydown, claiming he had AA, which translates into him saying he had 99 or something and just leveled me...


Final Pot: $108

Bule Gila wins $747.40 ( won +$56 )
doktore4 lost -$2.00
Hero lost -$52.00


Hand 5:

This has nothing to do with the point I'm trying to get across, but it was an interesting hand vs the same villain as in hand 2, and I am quite happy about the way I played it.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:CO basouli BB Hero

UTG	Neffer2	($233.45)
UTG+1	clopper lover	($171.60)
($269.40)
BTN	FIVETHREE53	($35.70)
SB	zer_cool	($195.00)
($388.80)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB

2 folds, basouli raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $5



Again the 40/31 player opens, 52% steal, and I hold crappy-connectors in the big blind. Generally this is a fold, but slightly over 100BB deep vs a bad player who may be tilting a bit after the last hands, I could not find the fold button.

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
Hero checks, basouli bets $12, Hero raises to $32, basouli raises to $102, Hero calls $70



I flop the nuts or cooler, and vs people who don't cbet too bloody often I just lead here. Vs him, a CR is more optimal.

After his 3bet on the flop, I consider my options, and I decide that if I get my money in now I will get it in as a decent favorite, but if I just lead the turn when it's safe, I'll probably have better equity overall. So I stick to that plan.


Turn: ($219, 2 players)
Hero bets $61, basouli goes all-in $160.40, Hero calls $99.40

River: ($539.80, 2 players)



With the history between us, I expect him to shove a turn lead extremely light, and I manage to get the rest of my money in pretty well. Obviously a shove would accomplish the same vs his set, but I do not think he would play a bare Ad or even Kd that different vs me.

Final Pot: $539.80
Hero shows:
basouli shows:

Hero wins $536.80 ( won +$267.40 )
basouli lost -$269.40


Overall, even while it does not show that much from these examples, I am going to to focus a bit more on mathematical edges when I can find them, and will probably tighten up quite a bit in spots which are extremely marginal vs non-regulars. Though vs regulars, I will probably still continue to do a bunch of crazy stuff for 2+ buyins when I think it's breakeven+, but that's good for metagame and image anyways.

Read Full Blog Post

Phase 2

Date: Sun, Sep 28, 2008 Internet

I upgraded my PC a few days ago, which actually also was quite funny to do (well, not the assembly, but the buying of the parts I needed). I walked into a computer store, across the place I work at myself, and asked them if they had the Q9300 processor. They answered no, so I thanked them for their time and walked outside. So I went into the next store, where they answered 'yes' to my question, and followed by asking me if that was all I needed. So I answered I also needed an asus mainboard but wanted to see their boxes (and made my pick after seeing them choosing the only one with the P45 chipset), 4GB of ram, an LG or Nec DVD burner, a SATA harddisk of 250gb (have enough external drives lying around) and a 550w power supply from Coolermaster or Antec.

Somewhere along the line they asked me what I was going to use the PC for, I believe it was when I informed them that the memory they were trying to sell me wasn't much better than the memory which was only 1/3rd of it's price (which was the only thing I bought where I even bothered to inform about the price, which also probably surprised them). I still remember the looks on their faces when I answered 'Poker' to their question.

So after finally bothering to put my PC together a few days later and reinstalling everything I decided it would be interesting to start with a complete clean database, and even not import my .dat file from Full Tilt which contains all the notes I have about players.

The reason for doing so was something I realized after my trip to Barcelona. I played a few days online and ran/played pretty bad, losing about 6 buyins or something. Nothing out of the ordinary, but I was getting less and less satisfied with my overall game. Further, my notes on players were cluttered with examples about hands that were way too specific, yet failed to describe the kind of players they were.

My NL2 winnings were something about 3.5ptBB/100 or something longterm, and that is not something to brag at, especially when I consider myself a decent player who invests a lot of time doing his homework, and who does not play too many tables.

I've been doing an extensive review of my old pokertracker database the last few days and came to the conclusion I missed out on quite some important things while playing my normal game, which was something that used to be a large part of my game before: Pure mathematics.

Here are a few examples to describe what I mean:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

2 folds, blinnd raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, 2 folds, blinnd folds

Final Pot: $17

Hero wins $34 ( won +$10 )
blinnd lost -$7.00


Villain in this spot is a solid regular. He plays 23/19 attempt to steal 36% with 28% attempt to steal from cutoff. His fold to 3bet is 61%, but this is obviously weighted based on position, history etc. His continuation bet % is only 61%.

So here, even while it does not look that bad to just call, I do not think I can exploit him that much with his low cbet %, and I may get in a tough spot with an easily dominated hand like KJo.

My old standard was to polarize my range here vs players like these with QQ+, AK and suited one-gappers which exclude a T. That part of my range is still the same vs him, but KJo has some great preflop bonuses in this spot:

If he opens with 28% of his hands, and even with the history between us which makes me believe he will defend somewhat lighter vs my 3bets, I still only expect him to continue with hands like 99-AA, AJ+, KQ and JQs/JTs. That is 8.1% of the total hands which he could be opening with, and it's about 29% of his total CO opening range. Assuming I will get owned badly if called, or won't put a chip in postflop, when seen as a total bluff this needs to succeed 24/34=70,6% of the time while he will generally fold 71% of that range. Even while that seems miniscule +EV, there are still two people sitting behind me who may wake up with aces.

Yet if I add the card removal bonuses for having KJo here, his range shifts. Before he would be continuing with 29% of his total CO range, but if I calculate the odds for him to hold a hand he can continue with when I hold blockers to some of those hands, things shift drastically.

So what seems a likely 28% cutoff opening range? Assume something like this, which is actually 28,5%: 22+,A2s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,A7o+,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+

That leads to 13 pocket pairs (78 combinations), A2s+(48 c.), K8s+(20), Q8s+(16), T8s+(8), 98s(4), A7o+(112), K9o+(64), Q9o+(48), J9o+(32).

This is not 100% correct off course, since I do not know his complete range, but it's a close estimate. Further, it's much more likely that hands like 56s are in his CO opening range than K9o when I am sitting behind him, but I'll leave it at this range for now.

So what this tells us is that he opens 430 different combinations, and he can continue with 29% of that range if I had no blockers, which are about 125 combinations. Me holding KJ gives me some blockers on his hand distribution if I look at what hands he'll continue with, which I described as 99-AA, AJ+, KQ and JQs/JTs. Holding KJ reduces the probability of him holding AJ+ with 8 combinations, KQ with 5, JQs/JTs with 2, 99+ with 6.

This sums up that while normally he could continue with 125 of his possible combinations, he can now only continue with 104. Me holding KJ has a significant impact on the chance I get called here, and while it's incorrect to say he will now only continue with 24% of his hands and will fold 76% of the time (since me having two blockers to hands he will continue with also reduces the chance he opened from that spot in the first place) it does have some noticeable impact.

This is an extremely marginal situation, but in this spot, combined with his low cbet % and some lunatics sitting behind me who could do something stupid like squeeze with A7o even without knowing how to spell that word, I figured 3betting was better in that spot than calling.

Hand 2:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:CO Hero BTN Neffer2 BB basouli

UTG	FIVETHREE53	($82.40)
UTG+1	zer_cool	($227.75)
($230.70)
($76.20)
SB	clopper lover	($110.00)
($438.75)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

2 folds, Hero raises to $7, Neffer2 calls $7, 1 fold, basouli raises to $29, Hero calls $22, Neffer2 folds



Villain in this hand played quite sporadically. He ran at 40/31 with a 3bet % of 8.8%, and I already made a note about him in earlier observed hands which made me think he was extremely squeezy-happy. So right here, I again have to fix a little mathematical dilemma.

I probably open about 25 or 30% from the CO on this table, and this player is going to 3bet tons and is definitely going to use most squeezy opportunities. If I fold almost any hand vs him except a widened value based range, he is going to exploit me tremendously preflop. This is why I need to continue with about half the hands I open from this spot to not be exploitable preflop, either by calling or 4betting for value/as bluff. 9Ts in position is definitely playable, so I call.


Flop: ($66, 2 players)
basouli bets $45, Hero calls $45



In a normal raised pot I rarely float with just a gutshot and backdoor flushdraw and prefer a bluffraise (though on this board texture, I prefer a float), but in a 3bet pot the stack sizes become a bit too small to raise here. Further, I cannot represent much if I raise since I would not raise a hand like AJ either. His large cbet makes me quite comfortable about my options later on, so I decide to float here.

Turn: ($156, 2 players)
basouli checks, Hero bets $63, basouli folds



Standard after floating flop. vs tighter players I would take the free card, but the chance of him having a made hand is so small that I prefer to take the pot down on the turn, cheaply.

Final Pot: $156

Hero wins $216 ( won +$79 )
Neffer2 lost -$7.00
basouli lost -$74.00


Hand 3:
$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG Big0308 CO Hero BTN blinnd

($541.60)
($401.10)
($197.00)
SB	sorry_its_me	($121.75)
BB	easyway777	($352.45)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is CO

Big0308 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, blinnd raises to $31, 2 folds, Big0308 folds, Hero raises to $66, blinnd calls $35



A 35/17 fish opened UTG, so I just flatted, since I do not really like raising with AQo in this spot much. It becomes more interesting though when someone who plays 23/19 with a 3bet % of 7.5% decides to squeeze. Yet again this person made some plays earlier which made me think that he pounds on preflop weakness a lot, so I assumed he was quite capable of squeezing here. I do not mind a call, but I figured AQ was ahead of his range, and since I will be playing AA/KK/QQ/AK the same in this preflop situation, I put in a tiny 4bet. Villain obliged by calling.

Flop: ($142, 2 players)
Hero checks, blinnd checks



I hated this flop kinda, since even while I rarely ever cbet in a 4bet pot OOP on dry boards, I do not expect to get much action. I took the same line with the rest of the hand as I would with KK in this spot.

Turn: ($142, 2 players)
Hero bets $69, blinnd folds

Final Pot: $142

Hero wins $208 ( won +$73 )
blinnd lost -$66.00
Big0308 lost -$7.00


Hand 4:

This is a hand I misplayed terribly, but I do not mind my play if I had something like KJ or A9o, since then I would at least have some blockers.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG+1 doktore4 BTN Hero SB Bule Gila

UTG	shxlfxm	($281.80)
($158.55)
CO	2michael8	($173.60)
($207.85)
($691.40)
BB	Boodabor	($219.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN

1 fold, doktore4 calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $10, Bule Gila raises to $28, 1 fold, doktore4 folds, Hero raises to $52, Bule Gila goes all-in $691.40, Hero folds



Villain in this hand is quite solid, played 21/16 after 1.2k hands, and had been owning me constantly at this table. Him sitting there would be a reason to actually leave the table, but since I want to get ready for 2/4, I do not mind some tough opposition at times.

What was interesting is that the villain in this spot 3bet me, while he generally used to just call my isolation raises in position when a fish was in the pot, even with hands like QQ+.

Because of that, I had to assume that he was probably more likely to be making a total bluff, compared to having an actual hand, since I did expect him to just call with all his playable and premium hands in this spot to keep the fish in, especially in position.

Sadly, I was wrong, and he told me after the hand that I made a good laydown, claiming he had AA, which translates into him saying he had 99 or something and just leveled me...


Final Pot: $108

Bule Gila wins $747.40 ( won +$56 )
doktore4 lost -$2.00
Hero lost -$52.00


Hand 5:

This has nothing to do with the point I'm trying to get across, but it was an interesting hand vs the same villain as in hand 2, and I am quite happy about the way I played it.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:CO basouli BB Hero

UTG	Neffer2	($233.45)
UTG+1	clopper lover	($171.60)
($269.40)
BTN	FIVETHREE53	($35.70)
SB	zer_cool	($195.00)
($388.80)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB

2 folds, basouli raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $5



Again the 40/31 player opens, 52% steal, and I hold crappy-connectors in the big blind. Generally this is a fold, but slightly over 100BB deep vs a bad player who may be tilting a bit after the last hands, I could not find the fold button.

Flop: ($15, 2 players)
Hero checks, basouli bets $12, Hero raises to $32, basouli raises to $102, Hero calls $70



I flop the nuts or cooler, and vs people who don't cbet too bloody often I just lead here. Vs him, a CR is more optimal.

After his 3bet on the flop, I consider my options, and I decide that if I get my money in now I will get it in as a decent favorite, but if I just lead the turn when it's safe, I'll probably have better equity overall. So I stick to that plan.


Turn: ($219, 2 players)
Hero bets $61, basouli goes all-in $160.40, Hero calls $99.40

River: ($539.80, 2 players)



With the history between us, I expect him to shove a turn lead extremely light, and I manage to get the rest of my money in pretty well. Obviously a shove would accomplish the same vs his set, but I do not think he would play a bare Ad or even Kd that different vs me.

Final Pot: $539.80
Hero shows:
basouli shows:

Hero wins $536.80 ( won +$267.40 )
basouli lost -$269.40


Overall, even while it does not show that much from these examples, I am going to to focus a bit more on mathematical edges when I can find them, and will probably tighten up quite a bit in spots which are extremely marginal vs non-regulars. Though vs regulars, I will probably still continue to do a bunch of crazy stuff for 2+ buyins when I think it's breakeven+, but that's good for metagame and image anyways.

Read Full Blog Post

EPT Barcelona

Date: Sat, Sep 27, 2008 Internet

Like the standard has been for me lately, it has been a while between updates again.
Only this time I do think I have a somewhat valid excuse, which is having spent 2 weeks in Spain granting myself a well deserved vacation.
Should any observant reader notice that the timespan between this entry and my most recent one is more than 2 weeks, please keep it to yourself since I do not need someone to tell me how lazy I am. Which yet again is proven by how little of the entry about my vacation is somewhat interesting to add to my blog, while the largest part of the vacation was spent at the local swimming pool with a nice cold beer.

Anyways, back on topic, so somewhere during that vacation me and the buddy who went with me decided to go to Barcelona. I lost the count about how often his father must have told him to not go to the casino/be careful at the casino/don't gamble at all as if he somehow thought the two of us were some gambling degenerates who only wanted to go to Barcelona to visit the casino there.

He couldn't be more right, but we did make some pictures with my phone from other random stuff so we could show him we did not spend all of our trip to Barcelona in the casino. One picture even got me in it, and even if it's a silly picture, you have to take into account that these are the kind of pictures you want to show to people who think you are a degenerate. It screams "See, I do go outside at times." while it leaves away information like that particular restaurant being only about 500 feet away from the casino.



When we entered the casino, which was very early in the evening, it was already packed. Reason for that being that the European Poker Tour was taking place there, and with the amount of players left in the tournament, the final table would probably be starting that evening. Perfect day to play some cash games vs some EPT busters.



Our plan was somewhat disturbed because one of the differences between online and live poker: waiting lists. Online, you get onto a few lists, get a coffee, and get back in time to click sit down on a few tables. Yet live, during the EPT, you have to wait 4 bloody hours before you can claim your seat.

So after finally getting my seat at an NL1k euro table, it did not take that long to bust. I found myself within the first half hour after sitting down in a situation where I held two overs + nut flush draw in a multiway pot getting about 3 to 1 pot odds, snapcalled failing to hit my outs vs two pair and some random crap hand I do not even remember, instead of dragging in a nice 2600 euro pot. That's poker, but I am quite happy that I snapcalled there instead of bothering to consider the amount of money involved.

After that I decided to watch the 'bubble' before the final table, which is quite an experience to see from the tribune compared to some online broadcast.

After the final table had started I noticed Kara Scott, the EPT hostess, from her accent on the Cardrunner's videos, when she interviewed someone in the tribune. So when I saw her in the press area and she was unoccupied, I decided to chat a bit with her.

It did look quite foolish though when she pointed out to me that as a Cardrunners member I should be recognizing the person who was sitting at the table I was standing at, who was Brian Townsend himself.

It was quite fun to run into Brian. After introducing myself to him and talking to him a bit, he seemed a genuinely spontaneous and nice guy, as you'd expect him to be from his videos/interviews etc. I did not bother him for long though, but since I was a tourist that day, I did ask for a picture for my blog. That was no problem at all, and Kara was kind enough to also join the picture. Sadly it was a bit out of focus though thanks to taking it with a cellphone.

I left the casino somewhere around 2am, even while the action on the final table was getting quite hot and only a few players were left. Me and my buddy, who is just as poker degenerate as yours truly, had the dilemma to either watch an EPT final table from the tribune, or go out to party in Barcelona throughout the rest of the night. And after going out till like 6 or 7am I can definitely vouch that the nightlife of Barcelona is quite a blast.

Read Full Blog Post

August Results

Date: Mon, Sep 1, 2008 Internet

Blog entry will be published tuesday, but here are my results so far from when I moved up to NL200, which was July 30:

Read Full Blog Post

High Variance Session

Date: Tue, Aug 19, 2008 Internet

Yesterday's session was absolutely nuts. There are no other words to describe it, and I definitely did not play optimal. It was a session which gave me a lot of food for thought. So much, I decided not to play today but go through the hands.

So first of all, let's skip towards the end of the session on one of my tables where someone tried to own me by using the BluffCall strategy.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $4, CO calls $4, 2 folds, Hero raises to $21, UTG+1 calls $17, CO calls $17



[UTG+1 posts $2]. Let's stop here. What does this mean? Fireworks!

Someone posted his blind out of position after the previous fish busted. This is an incredibly fun situation normally since it will generally lead to the regulars going absolutely insane with isolation raises, resteals, re-resteals and 5bet shoves with 69s. So after seeing I hold the nuts preflop the regulars decide to disappoint me and absolutely fail at creating a large pot before the action gets back to me.

So what is the story here from the fish's perspective? He posted $2 out of position without giving any thought to it, and after posting he realizes he wants to protect his $2 with any two cards. He obviously considers his options, which are minraising, open shoving, and checking (there's no open fold button on FTP) and he chooses the first one.

CO is a decent regular and he chooses to just call. Vs fish's range, any two cards will be playable, but him not isolating instead is a bit suspicious to me. The range I put him on is actually quite strong, so more like a pocket pair, decent strong aces and not much else. Perhaps some random low suited connectors between 56s and 78s. I think if he had a random connected crap he would just iso-raise here preflop.

My raise here is obviously standard, though I do not want to let out what the bottom end of my raising range is here. It's close to any-one-card though.


Flop: ($64, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $64, 1 fold, Hero raises to $256, UTG+1 calls $115



Here I have a dilemma. I flop the nuts vs Fish and I do not care what he has. No matter what he holds here, he posted out of position which is a big mistake, he minraised preflop which is another mistake, and me stacking off with TPTK is not a mistake vs his range. So I am going to own him regardless of the results.

But CO is still in the hand. If I bet here, Fish calls/monkey shoves and CO calls, I am forced to pay his sets of because I have to assume hands like AQ/AJ are actually in his range here. And we're over two buyins deep.

Yet if I check, this hand becomes easier to play. Should I check Fish will see yet another opportunity to protect his $2 which he posted out of position, and will generally lead out with their complete range because my check obviously implies I do not hold an ace. Now if CO raises, I am quite certain he will be doing this with a large part of his range since he should be quite certain Fish is betting out his complete range here, meaning CO's range will be wider than sets and AQ/two pair, so I am more than willing to get it in.

CO folds and I complete the stack-a-donk move here, which Fish tries to counter by making a bluffcall. Its an advanced play from the Fish's arsenal, which is done to show sharks that they cannot be bluffed off no hand to inspire fear into them in future hands.

All in all he put in $198 to protect the $2 he posted out of position...

Turn: ($499, 2 players)

River: ($499, 2 players)

Final Pot: $422
Hero shows:
UTG+1 shows:

Hero wins $496 ( won +$219 )
UTG+1 lost -$200.00
CO lost -$21.00



But before Fish claims the Stupid Play Of The Day Award, I somehow decide to improve my chances on another table:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG+1 Hero SB

UTG		($118.65)
($244.20)
($483.95)
BTN		($211.15)
($715.15)
BB		($400.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 1 fold, SB raises to $35, 1 fold, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $28



Here I see some normal-stack dude open up UTG, and I got a suited-crap hand which is not +EV to play vs his stack size, especially not while there's a big-stack behind me who just can't resist squeezing every bloody time I decide to cold-call someone.

Somehow I decide to call here, to trap mr. Big Stack into joining the pot. I know he can't resist squeezing, so my trap succeeds here and he squeezes here as planned so I can call him in-position with suited-crap.


Flop: ($79, 2 players)
SB bets $55, Hero calls $55



Hitting a pretty good draw here was not part of my plan. I wanted to flop something like a gutshot at best so I could bluffraise and feel good about myself. Yet here I end up IP with a well disguised draw in position vs mr. Big Stack which is the best I could hope for preflop. I mean, put a 5 and a 7 on the flop when I got a 4 and a 6 means the poker gods must be on my side. I cannot raise here though since I do not want to get raised off my draw in this spot. Which was the ony correct play I made during this hand.

Turn: ($189, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $101, SB calls $101



So after improving to a pair and OESD I hold somewhere about 30% equity vs a real hand villain may have, like an overpair, but my hand also has a decent bit of showdown value. Because we are this deep, I have a few options here. I can bet hoping to fold out worse or hands with 6 outs at best, or I can check behind and hope to hit one of my million outs. I obviously decided to bet here because no other reason besides that I would get a decent price on calling a shove should he do so, and villain's call screams that he holds an overpair.


River: ($391, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero goes all-in $292.95, SB calls $292.95



In this spot I try to think of a single hand in villain's range my 4 can beat, and I can think of none since it's bloody obvious he was pot controlling and inducing with a high pocket pair at this time. Yet I get a somewhat decent price to bluffshove this river, which I decided to do before considering what on earth I could be representing here. I'm representing a set, that's it. Villain should know by now his JJ/AA beats any of the hands I could be betting here other than flopped or turned sets, and I somehow oblige by throwing 1,5 buyins more at him?

Final Pot: $976.90
Hero shows:
SB shows:

SB wins $973.90 ( won +$489.95 )
Hero lost -$483.95
UTG+1 lost -$7.00



On the bright side, it seems my stupidity seems contagious, as this hand happened later on the same table vs another player, after I succeeded building up a stack again:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG Hero SB

($164.90)
CO		($556.80)
($1660.35)
($346.65)
BB		($413.05)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN

UTG calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $11, SB calls $10, 1 fold, UTG folds

Flop: ($26, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $18, SB raises to $56, Hero calls $38



Villain in question played quite taggy, somewhere around 19/15, but my image was quite loose here. On this flop, there was only 1 hand I was really behind to, which is 66. Other than that, I do not see villain not 3betting TT or QQ vs me, nor calling OOP with QT because he's a nit. So what his flop raise means is that he holds 66, a very strong draw which may be close to a favorite over AA, or hands he turns into a bluff.

Reraising here is absolutely no option because it extracts no value from his worse hands, and getting it in here means I am actually a large underdog to his range, because 66 is a decent part from it and the rest of the hands he willingly puts his stack in will have sick equity vs aces.


Turn: ($138, 2 players)
SB bets $90, Hero calls $90



A very nice blank (J9 is not part of his range), villain leads out again and at this time I am much more comfortable about my hand. I do not like to mix it up between raising and calling here, because I expect villain to actually be checking some scarecards to me should be hit as I've seen him do before. Again I just call, and am perfectly fine with paying off 66 as long as I make money vs the rest of his range.

River: ($318, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $189.65, Hero calls $189.65



With another blank arriving, the call here is standard I think. Villain did not show 66 and called me a fish for making such bad calls...

Final Pot: $697.30
Hero shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $694.30 ( won +$347.65 )
UTG lost -$2.00
SB lost -$346.65

Read Full Blog Post

Why So Serious?

Date: Mon, Aug 18, 2008 Internet

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

1 fold, Hero raises to $7, 1 fold, SB raises to $26, 1 fold, Hero raises to $58, SB goes all-in $307.55, Hero calls $142

Flop: ($509.55, 2 players)

Turn: ($509.55, 2 players)

River: ($509.55, 2 players)

Final Pot: $402
Hero shows:
SB shows:

Hero wins $399 ( won +$199 )
SB wins $107.55 ( lost -$200 )



$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG BTN Hero

($214.75)
UTG+1		($186.80)
CO		($99.95)
($487.60)
SB		($197.40)
($246.15)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BB

UTG raises to $7, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, 1 fold, Hero raises to $28, UTG raises to $90, BTN folds, Hero goes all-in $246.15, UTG calls $124.75

Flop: ($468.90, 2 players)

Turn: ($468.90, 2 players)

River: ($468.90, 2 players)

Final Pot: $437.50
UTG shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $465.90 ( won +$219.75 )
UTG lost -$214.75
BTN lost -$7.00



$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG+1 Hero

UTG		($100.10)
($307.85)
($327.20)
BTN		($486.60)
SB		($193.60)
BB		($223.50)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $7, Hero calls $7, 3 folds

Flop: ($17, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $11.65, Hero calls $11.65

Turn: ($40.30, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $24, UTG+1 raises to $96, Hero calls $72

River: ($232.30, 2 players)
UTG+1 goes all-in $193.20, Hero calls $193.20

Final Pot: $618.70
UTG+1 shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $615.70 ( won +$307.85 )
UTG+1 lost -$307.85


Why so serious? It's only money.

Either that is the common mindset at NL200, or it's just that absolutely nobody is capable of giving any other player the slightest bit of credit for having a better hand.

One huge difference in NL200 compared to NL100 is how players react to 3betting. There are many winning regulars at this limit who open 50-60% or even more from the button but call close to 50% of all 3bets should someone in the blinds decide to 3bet. Further, they even open around 50% from the small blind into any big blind, even if the player in the big blind is solid.

The scary part is how they crush the players who play back at them, even while most try to do so in a bad way. For instance, if someone likes to call when they get 3bet from the blinds while they hold the button often, why are people still 3betting with a polarized range? Why do the cbet every single flop in 3bet pots?

The common mindset at NL200 seems to be that aggressive regulars already know how to adjust to people who 3bet light out of position, and they are incapable of folding often enough because they think they can outplay them postflop. So if people keep 3betting the wrong hands, and play predictable postflop, they just get crushed in these spots.

A hand like this should be a decent example on one way to adjust to them:


$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:BTN Hero

UTG		($433.80)
UTG+1		($243.00)
CO		($254.00)
($209.00)
($200.00)
BB		($133.70)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $7, Hero raises to $24, 1 fold, BTN calls $17



So what is the situation so far: I've sat at this table for an orbit or so, but villain is a regular and played often vs me. He knows I am capable of 3betting light from these spots.

What do we know about villain with a decent sample size:
- He plays 29/23, attempt to steal 33%
- He opens 50% from the button first in
- He calls 3bets 50% of the time on average, so even more when in-position.
- He 4bets 13% of the time

How does he play in 3bet pots?

So far he folded to 35% of the cbets in total, in 3bet pots I have not seen him fold to a cbet that often. It's a mix of calling and raising generally.

Now before making a decision here it's time to plan the hand. First of all, is 3betting or calling better preflop here? Even while KQs is a great hand to call with in these spots, the situation changes vs a player who will call with worse, raise with better, and fold some total junk or unplayable hands like A6o.

Further, when I 3bet this player from the blinds and we get to see a flop, I will be missing the flop a decent amount of the time. So knowing how he reacts to cbets, I will need to checkfold some flops I miss with my range, cbet/3bet some decent boards, cbet/3bet some semi-bluffs, and check-call some hands. Cbetting every flop is just going to burn money vs him.

Another good way to play here is to not 3bet light vs him at all. But even so, I still think KQs is a mandatory 3bet for value here.



Flop: ($50, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $28, Hero calls $28



Here my standard line is to cbet. The board is pretty drawy, and I can earn tons of value from drawing hands here, and hands he'll float with to bluff the turn when checked to. So should I bet here, my standard play would be to check any blank turn to this player because I really want to earn two streets of value here from his complete range.

But like I said earlier, I will be checkfolding a lot of flops vs villain also. If I check here, he'll bet with his complete range, and KQ is just a huge favorite over that range on this board. So I decide to mix it up here and start out by checking TP to him on a drawy board, and just calling his bet.

In this spot I cbet most of the time, CR a decent bit, and check-call now and then.



Turn: ($106, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($106, 2 players)
Hero bets $63, BTN calls $63



Here I messed up. Like I said, I wanted to earn two streets of value vs his complete range. The line I took here only gets value out of second or third pair, since my play makes very little sense. I did manage to extract decent value from his holding here, but my bet size here is terrible.

A much better betsize would be something that would make him realize 2nd or third pair has little to no showdown value here, so villain could consider a bluffshove. Something like 1/3rd pot would make my hand stand out as something like AJ, and a player as aggressive as him and a competent hand reader would not let this spot pass often.


Final Pot: $232
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $229 ( won +$114 )
BTN lost -$115.00


Another example of not cbetting too often in 3bet pots is here vs a certain red pro from FTP. With about 2k hands on her, she again is an example of someone who really tries to abuse position, and makes a decent profit of it. Her attempt to steal from button is about 89%, and she opens around 38% of her small blinds.

How she reacts to 3bets falls under about a different category as the previous villain. She actually folds to 78% of all 3bets, but never 4bets. Meaning that instead of a very polarized range that would be needed should she be folding or 4betting, a wide range is needed to 3bet here: Hands that can be 3bet for value and are not dominated often, and hands that can hit flops decently. In short, hands like 67s are not a fold or call vs her from the blinds, but a good hand to 3bet. AQ is about the cutoff I would be 3betting for value vs her, AJ and KQ would just be a call, since she would not call 3bets with worse hands.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:BTN Hero

UTG		($439.75)
UTG+1		($151.90)
CO		($930.50)
($226.35)
($409.95)
BB		($201.00)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is SB

3 folds, BTN raises to $6, Hero raises to $22, 1 fold, BTN calls $16



Her call here makes her range pretty strong, and I have to assume hands like AA/KK/QQ/AK are definitely a decent part of her range here.

Flop: ($46, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks



I do not like to cbet here since I do not think it can extract much value from her range. Further, should she continue with her hand here, I'll be seeing hands that crush AQ here quite often. So I decide to check and reevaluate what's going to happen.

Turn: ($46, 2 players)
Hero bets $32, BTN calls $32

River: ($110, 2 players)
Hero bets $67, BTN calls $67



Because she checked behind on the flop, I do not have to worry that much about being behind now. So the turn and river bets are quite standard here hoping to get called by worse.

Final Pot: $244
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $241 ( won +$120 )
BTN lost -$121.00


So far I cannot complain about my results at NL200 yet. These are the results so far since the 30th of june:

Read Full Blog Post

July Results

Date: Fri, Aug 1, 2008 Internet

Even while July has been quite a bitch to me for a week or so, she made more than up for it in the end resulting in me having my first 3k+ month: $2334 normal winnings, $2995 if I include rakeback and $3420 if I include the ironman bonus.

The most interesting about july has not been the winnings though, but the adjustments I have made to my play. Not all of these will be out in the open on these blog entries, but the hand histories I posted should already point some of those out to observant people.

Other events in july that were quite interesting were the sweat sessions. I've done a few sweat sessions with some Cardrunner's members and realized much better afterwards how many different options there were for certain situations. Differences in how to approach certain spots can be so different for each player, even while one option is not always better than the other, but both are still viable. It's just up to me to consider my options better, and decide which one is best based on opponents tendencies.

Read Full Blog Post

Two For The Money

Date: Fri, Aug 1, 2008 Internet

"Still you talk like this. Who the fuck are you, like this is some kind of game. I was betting a few thousand a Sunday when I called you. You pushed me. Every call. All the time with your talk... I lost $380,000 this weekend... I was going to get married... I had a life..."

The above lines come from a movie which is included in the category I described in an earlier blog entry, which are movies from the "never bad enough to not be worth watching" genre.

The movie, "Two for the money", stars Al Pacino as the owner of a Vegas company which resolves around advising sports-betting addicts on what team to pick before a football match takes place. If they are right they get 10% of the addict's winnings. If they are wrong they may lose a customer.

The concept about the company's structure was quite interesting to me. Which is gambling with other's people's money and getting paid if you are right. Which translates into having an infinite bankroll to gamble with as long as the supply of gambling degenerates does not lose the trust in the company and steps over to competitors.

Most of those aspects can actually be applied to poker.

Gambling with other people's money? I probably have to lose over 20k dollars before I have to put in money again which originally did not come from another poker player's paycheck.

Losing customers or having customers move over to the competition? Also quite applicable. I generally get in a lot of situations where some preflop action is directly +EV but not the best one:

Here is one example from those:

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

Week 31: MADNESS!

Date: Sun, Jul 27, 2008 Internet

So my last entry I yammered a bit about how cruel July was to me, and all sorts of completely insignificant nonsense like that, but it seems July is actually coming close to becoming quite as hot as all the strippers that borrow her name.

Sadly, before I spoil the results, this entry to my blog is only about the current week, so I have to stick to the plan and focus on that, instead of strippers.

I made an incredibly smart move this week, which is to purchase Holdem Manager. Now before you go thinking this entry will be just one giant Holdem Manager review, you are dead wrong. Considering the sick amounts of hits this blog gets because of people looking for information about Poker EV (and after today, strippers), I will not be responsible for getting one of the two companies bankrupt yet.

At least not tonight.

The reason for not doing so tonight should be quite cliché. I have better things to do this evening. Like watching Nicholas Cage movies.

Now before an observant reader scrolls down and sees the time of this post and thinks out loud (poker players think out loud, blame Techsmith) 'WTF are you doing doing on a sunday evening? Don't you have better things to do than post a lousy blog?!?), the answer to that question should be pretty easy to answer: Yep, as answered above which you have not read if you scrolled down to the bottom already, but I'll be glad to clarify: Nicholas Cage movies have the same quality as movies which involve Sean Connery: They are never bad enough to not be worth watching.

The real reason for watching movies and posting on my blog on a sunday is actually quite simple: 1 sixpack. My stop-loss is set at 4 Heineken. So I won't let myself play today anymore...

To get back on track, July is not as bad as I made her sound. She's just been teasing me a bit. So next time I meet a stripper named July, I'll just think about this week's graph:



Or this week's table:



Even while I have not put in that many hours this week, I think the few I put in were those when I felt I was able to play my A game. Which means not being drunk, distracted, horny, tired or hungry.

The most interesting and incredibly well played pots were some of the dozen of situations where I check-folded some bad flop textures, but posting those in this entry would just bore people, so instead, I'll post some random other hands from this week to keep the readers happy:

Hand 1:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $12.50, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls $9



Villain in question is a regular at these limits who likes to own the regulars with relentless aggression. I'm a regular too, but dislike to get owned, which changes the metagame between the two of us quite a bit.
His VPIP is 40, PFR 31, attempt to steal 45%. Which are stats that Holdem Manager(TM) shows in the hand replayer without me even asking about them. And when I hold my mouse over his stats in the replayer, it shows that he folds to 3bets 19% of the time, out of 349 hands in july, or rather, out of the 19 times he got 3 bet, which was generally by me.

These are my notes on him:

Does not fold to any of my 3bets, 4bets often
Will check-call flushdraws in 3bet pots
representing hands when IP
OOP will make some large bluffs but won't do anything crazy on rivers without the goods.
leads oesd and continues on turn

So knowing this, I know I will not get him to fold often, but TT is way ahead of his range here, and this screams for a value 3bet.

Even I heard it, so I did.

Flop: ($26, 2 players)
Hero bets $16, UTG+1 raises to $34, Hero calls $18



Villain raises me slightly over a minraise here, but this board is not that bad for my range vs his range. There's one overcard, and if he hit that overcard, would he really be stupid enough to raise a hand like AJ here vs my range? Definitely not, so the range I put him on is AJ (like never), air (lots), marginal mid-pair (often) and set (sometimes). Which means that vs his range I'm still ahead, but I cannot get value out of any of his range which I beat here by raising.

Turn: ($94, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: ($94, 2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 goes all-in $99.40, Hero calls $59.10



He checked a blank turn, and bets a second J on the river? I do not think he will be raising a J on the dry flop, not even AJ, which translates into the second J being a blank. Yet what does my hand look like? A marginal pair or perhaps an overpair looking to get to showdown cheap, but definitely not a J. Villain is good enough to realize that, and he'll be 100% correct in this case. So when he shoves this river, he got air or a set. But would he check a set on that turn if he likes money?

Final Pot: $212.20
UTG+1 shows:
Hero shows:

UTG+1 wins $40.30 ( lost -$105.60 )
Hero wins $209.20 ( won +$103.60 )


Hand 2: Same Villain:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG Hero

($138.90)
UTG+1		($254.25)
CO		($39.55)
($104.10)
SB		($142.10)
BB		($100.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN

UTG raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $6, Hero calls $6



I absolutely hate raising with a double-gutshot vs a thinking lag. I think hes capable of 3betting AQ etc on these boards should I raise, and my hand is well disguised.

Turn: ($20.50, 2 players)
UTG bets $14, Hero raises to $42, UTG folds



Now here I have a mathematical dilemma. My draw is huge, but this player will still be betting unimproved overcards here quite often or marginal pairs, and some draws himself, because he thinks I could be holding a marginal hand/draw myself.

Now vs almost any taggish or standard player I would almost always just call here, because most of the time all my flush and straight outs will be good, and I have a diamond flushdraw on the board I can do something with as well should it hit.

But what vs a player who will not bluff the river should I call here, still does not have a made hand here that often, and will just check-call the river with the best of his range and check-fold all his air on any river unless the board does not change like an extra 3?

Calling here vs a player like that is directly immense EV, but I expect his range to hold so much air still that I actually decided to make a committing raise on this turn thinking it would probably be even more EV because his range would still hold so much air still.

Final Pot: $48.50

Hero wins $74.10 ( won +$22.60 )
UTG lost -$23.50


Hand 3: Another TT:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:UTG BTN SB Hero

($82.95)
UTG+1		($101.00)
CO		($111.20)
($113.60)
($138.55)
($100.00)

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BB

UTG calls $1, 2 folds, BTN raises to $4.50, SB calls $4, Hero raises to $18, UTG folds, BTN folds, SB calls $13.50




A fish limped, someone with 18/14 yet 40% steal iso raised and a 27/15 coldcalled. The correct decision is about as tough here as choosing between spareribs and tofu.

Rest of the hand does not matter since it was pretty standard for both sides, but I stacked some fish atleast.

Read Full Blog Post

Size Matters

Date: Mon, Jul 21, 2008 Internet

I've been silent since my last update. I vaguely remember me describing in the last entry how good July was for me and how juicy the tables were.

My thoughts about the juiciness of July changed a bit because of a downswing peaking at about 15 buyins. Some of the downswing could be credited because of bad luck. Earlier during the month I checked some PokerEV data and it showed I ran about 10 buyins below equity in allin situations, which had a probability of about 16%. So I did run somewhat bad.


PokerEV calculates Sklansky Bucks, but it does a lousy job at calculating Galfond Bucks. Galfond Bucks, G-bucks for short, are about the expected value based on villain's hand range and tendencies. For instance, on the deepstack tables I managed to get KK in vs AA about 3 times. Getting the money in 3 times with kings vs aces will have an expected value of -$384, I ran at -$600 (slightly more losses even since generally I had a larger than 200BB effective stack), so I lost $216 worth of sklansky bucks on those tables.

G-bucks on the other hand were immensely good in those spots, especially vs people who still jam AK and JJ preflop, so those spots were just coolers.

Other than that, I'm really disappointed about my play this month. It's not that I played bad at all, I think I played pretty decent, but I got one huge leak to work on which is the consistency of my plays. I do try to adjust my ranges based on player tendencies well enough, but my bet sizing is way too consistent.

For instance, when playing vs a calling station and I got a strong hand I may bet slightly more than vs a more solid player. This may be fine on the flop, but on the turn and river I noticed after some session reviews my bet sizes are just too consistent vs most kind of players.

When I am playing vs a solid player who check/calls my cbet on an ace-rag-rag board and I hold AK or a set, it's pretty obvious villain is in a check-call mode vs me. Why not bet pot for all 3 streets in spots where I never will be bluffing anyways? But this counts even more vs fish. When I got a decent idea about their hand range, and want to make a value bet, fish won't be paying attention to my bet sizing. Whether I bet $31 in a $39 pot on the river or bet $39 will have absolutely no difference on whether they call or not with a TP-strength hand. So why do I lose value there?

Filtering july's results shows something interesting. If I filter it on the hands where I went to showdown, bet the river, those winnings total at $1,5k worth of winnings in 108 different situations. In the situations where I reach the showdowns and bet the river, I won 73% of the time. I reviewed each of those 108 hands today and realize I probably missed close to $500 worth of value in those spots. Now THAT is a huge leak in my eyes.

On the bright side, even while July has been pretty bad for me, it's not as bad as it sounds. I won only $215 in normal winnings, but when I include the ironman bonus and rakeback, it has been good for about $1100 so far, which is not totally hopeless.

I just realized this entry was completely without any hand histories, so I will make up for it by posting the most interesting hand of the day. It's not the largest pot I won/lost by far, but I think I could have lost a lot of value here by cbetting (and getting called by the fish and bluffed on river) or doing a delayed cbet which would just lead to a fold:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

3 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2



Villain will not fold his BB often at all, he's a 43% 0.7% aggression fish, folds 23% of the time to cbets, which explains my smaller open from small blind.

Flop: ($6, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks



I do not like to cbet here. Villain will call with as much as 1 overcard probably, but I could be drawing dead at times aswell. Do I want to check-call the river? No. Will villain check the river down without showdown value should I cbet here and check both turn and river? No. Do I want to bet here and check-call any river? No. Will villain bet this flop without anything? This is the good part: No. So no need to bet for value here and get myself in trouble later on in the hand.


Turn: ($6, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB checks




Read flop explanation. A 7 arrived. Will villain bet air/overcards here? Nope. Will he bet a 7? Yep. So this is an easy check again.

River: ($6, 2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $6, Hero calls $6




Did the board change? Nope. Can villain call with worse here? Nope. So no value in betting. Calling stations however do like to try to take pot downs when they suddenly realize their hand is probably no good, but me checking thrice gives them the impression I do not have anything.

Final Pot: $18
Hero shows:
BB shows:

Hero wins $17.10 ( won +$8.10 )
BB lost -$9.00

Read Full Blog Post

Back into Action: July

Date: Thu, Jul 10, 2008 Internet

After leaving June behind me, which is something I do not really mind with the bad start I had starting it on a tilty downswing followed by proceeding the rest of the month putting in way too few hands, June has only been good for a few buyins profit for me.

July on the other hand has started off quite well for me, and the tables seem quite juicy compared to normal, which may be because of everyone trying to earn enough FPP's this month to clear their Ironman bonus.

The most fun hand was vs a Cardrunner's member, who member, who asked me to post the reasoning behind the hand on the CR forums. Atleast, that is my interpretation from his chat, his exact words being "go put thaT ON THE FORUM FISH". Because of that, I were kind enough to oblige, and also decided to post the hand here just in case he happens to miss the specific topic about it:

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Profiles and Stacks:

	CO		($131.65)	14.5/8.2/7.0 (110)
	BTN		($100.00)	17.0/15.0/1.3 (100)
	Hero		($248.45)	34.9/30.2/3.8 (106)
	BB		($50.25)	22.6/12.9/7.0 (62)

1 fold, BTN raises to $3.50, Hero raises to $12.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $9



Villain in question has taggish stats, has high attempt to steal (atleast over 30%) seems solid but I do not know him that well. I have not 3bet him light that often, and want to see how he responds. With a hand like A6s I generally fold, but because the other CR member was sitting out, all 3 options were available (since I do not fear getting squeezed by the remaining player). I chose to 3bet here though since A6s is a bit too weak to flat with OOP.

Flop: ($26, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks



I do not know what kind of hands he'll call me with, but I expect it to be wider than normal because of my own stats (35/30/3.8 with 52% attempt to steal). So here I am somewhat worried about AQ/AJ, but on the other hand, I did hit TP in a 3bet pot. OOP I do not want to bet/fold or bet/call with this hand, so I decide to check. Villain checks behind, which makes it quite unlikely for me that he holds a strong ace here. I do not know if he's capable of checking AQ behind here, but it seems very unlikely to me.

Turn: ($26, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $15, Hero calls $15



Because of his flop check, I expect to be ahead here most of the time unless he holds 99. I still see very little value in betting, and am not certain what to do if I get raised here.

River: ($56, 2 players)
Hero bets $12, BTN goes all-in $72.50, Hero calls $60.50



Here I assume I have the best hand, unless he has 99 or hit his flush. I think check-calling is best vs his bluffs, but I am not certain if he'll bluff again in this spot. I also do not like to bet/fold here.

So I decided to make the head-exploding bet here to at least allow him to do something stupid, since my play makes no sense. When I try to induce a bluff, I obviously have to call here.

Final Pot: $201
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $199 ( won +$99 )
BTN lost -$100.00


So, I think my reasoning and play was quite fine in this hand. Because I gave the villain in question some respect I used a bit less straightforward line to keep the pot small and protect myself from bluffs early in the hand, and increased his bluffing range on later streets.

But was this respect for villain justified?

- What was villain representing here?
- What was villain doing at this table with two CR members sitting to his direct left (other CR member is not in HH because he's sitting out)? Obviously this must mean he is quite sure about his ability to outplay both me and the other CR member even while he will be OOP except when he holds the button.
- Why did villain call a 3bet preflop with 79s while only 100BB deep? Again, he must be a great player if he thinks he can play that hand profitably IP in a 3bet pot.

Sure buddy, I'll post it and explain my thought process. Now I dare villain in question to explain his.

Read Full Blog Post